A Systematic Approach to Evidence-Based Appliance Program Design

Appliance programs are among the longest running and most successful of all energy efficiency programs. They reach hundreds of thousands of people in nearly every U.S. state and are embraced by customers and utilities alike. However, in late 2010, two of the country’s largest programs reached a critical decision point. Program cost-effectiveness had declined sharply due to decreasing per-measure savings. These programs, like nearly all other appliance programs, provide cash incentives to end users for purchase of an efficient appliance. Program administrators knew they needed to evolve their strategies for achieving savings in their 20132014 programs, and beyond, that would incorporate both new approaches to program implementation and new measures. This paper reports the process used to identify new appliance program strategies, an evidence-based, systematic approach that puts market characterization and process evaluation to use in new ways. The study, completed in March 2012, focused on four appliance categories: refrigerators, water heaters, pool pumps and motors, and clothes dryers. The paper also describes the regulatory and evaluation challenges to implementing some of the recommended strategies, focusing on the difficulties with midstream and upstream supply chain interventions. The paper concludes by recommending a new approach to evaluating midstream and upstream energy efficiency programs, including suggested research methods and the findings they will, and will not, produce.